Stock Price Prediction

INTRODUCTION

The financial market is a dynamic and composite system where people can buy and sell currencies, stocks, equities and derivatives over virtual platforms supported by brokers. The stock market allows investors to own shares of public companies through trading either by exchange or over the counter markets. This market has given investors the chance of gaining money and having a prosperous life through investing small initial amounts of money, low risk compared to the risk of opening new business or the need of high salary career. Stock markets are affected by many factors causing the uncertainty and high volatility in the market. Although humans can take orders and submit them to the market, automated trading systems (ATS) that are operated by the implementation of computer programs can perform better and with higher momentum in submitting orders than any human. However, to evaluate and control the performance of ATSs, the implementation of risk strategies and safety measures applied based on human judgements are required. Many factors are incorporated and considered when developing an ATS, for instance, trading strategy to be adopted, complex mathematical functions that reflect the state of a specific stock, machine learning algorithms that enable the prediction of the future stock value, and specific news related to the stock being analysed.

Time-series prediction is a common technique widely used in many real-world applications such as weather forecasting and financial market prediction. It uses the continuous data in a period of time to predict the result in the next time unit. Many time- series prediction algorithms have shown their effectiveness in practice. The most common algorithms now are based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), as well as its special type

- Long-short Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). Stock market is a typical area that presents time-series data and many researchers study on it and proposed various models. In this project, LSTM model is used to predict the stock price.

 

1.1 MOTIVATION FOR WORK

Businesses primarily run over customer’s satisfaction, customer reviews about their products. Shifts in sentiment on social media have been shown to correlate with shifts in stock markets. Identifying customer grievances thereby resolving them leads to customer satisfaction as well as trustworthiness of an organization. Hence there is a necessity of an un biased automated system to classify customer reviews regarding any problem. In today’s environment where we’re justifiably suffering from data overload (although this does not mean better or deeper insights), companies might have mountains of customer feedback collected; but for mere humans, it’s still impossible to analyse it manually without any sort of error or bias. Oftentimes, companies with the best intentions find themselves in an insights vacuum. You know you need insights to inform your decision making and you know that you’re lacking them, but don’t know how best to get them. Sentiment analysis provides some answers into what the most important issues are, from the perspective of customers, at least. Because sentiment analysis can be automated, decisions can be made based on a significant amount of data rather than plain intuition.

1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT

Time Series forecasting & modelling plays an important role in data analysis. Time series analysis is a specialized branch of statistics used extensively in fields such as Econometrics & Operation Research. Time Series is being widely used in analytics & data science. Stock prices are volatile in nature and price depends on various factors. The main aim of this project is to predict stock prices using Long short term memory (LSTM).