General Households Survey (GHS): The objective of the GHS conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is to collect data on social and economic characteristics of the population for monitoring the effects of Government policies and programmes. In a section to be filled in respect of each person who is fifteen years and above, the following information are solicited, main job during previous week (9 options), reason for doing nothing during previous week (8 options), primary or main occupation, secondary occupation, unemployment (voluntary/involuntary) and income last month. It is an annual survey in which the sample of households is divided into monthly sub-samples. One sub-sample is surveyed each month such that the exercise is spread out uniformly throughout the year to even out seasonal effects.
Administrative Sources of Employment Data: Employment statistics are generated as by-products of the administrative system. Such data are in the form of registers and in some cases aggregates of categories of employees. The following are routine sources of employment data in Nigeria:
(a) Professional and Executive Registry: most professional associations keep a register of members and their employment status. Official gazettes in which details of civil servants are periodically published are also sources of employment data.
(b) Payroll of Establishments: is a very reliable source of data on wage employment.
(c) Industrial Training Fund (ITF) and Inland Revenue: most wage earners contribute to NPF and their records with the agencies managing the fund include name, age, gender, employment and employer which, except the name, can form the basis for aggregation. This is also true of tax forms submitted to the Inland Revenue Service.
(d) Employment Exchange Registry: is a major source of the unemployment of unskilled workers, primary and secondary school leavers who register with the exchanges. Also, the exchange itself is a source of information on vacancies that can be filled by unskilled workers. Statistics of industrial relations as collated by the Federal Ministry of Labour and Productivity (FMLP) is another major component of administrative statistics.
(e) Annual Reports: most government ministries and parastatals produce annual reports of the year’s activities. Such reports often contain the information on established positions, existing stock of labour, vacancies and withdrawals.
Manpower Forecast Approaches
Armstrong (2003) described demand forecasting as the process of estimating the future numbers of people required as well as the skills and competences they will require. Forecasting uses information from the past and present to identify anticipated future situations. Projections for the future are, of course, subject to blunders. Changes in the situations on which the projections are primarily based would be possibly even absolutely invalidate them, which is the risk forecasters take (Wurim, 2013). However, manpower requirement is the variety of people required to do a certain job (Cole, 2005). Folayan (2006) submitted that manpower requirement is estimating future needs for people and competencies by reference to corporate and functional plans and the forecast of the future activity levels. It is the technique of calculating approximately the future numbers of essential manpower and the likely skills and competencies they will need. Louis (2005) opined that manpower requirement is a method to determine how many and what form of workers the organisations need to attain its objective.
Why should organisations concern themselves with demand forecasting? There are numerous goods reasons to conduct demand forecasting. It can help: (i) quantify the jobs necessary for producing a given number of goods, or offering a given amount of services, (ii) decide what group of workers-mix is desirable in the future, (iii) assess appropriate staffing levels in different parts of the organisation so as to avoid unnecessary costs, (iv) prevent shortage of people where and when they are needed most, and (v) monitor compliance with legal requirements with regard to reservation of jobs (Aswathappa, 2005:74).
