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Time Series Analysis On Consumption Of Electricity In Kwara State
[A CASE STUDY OFFA NEPA DISTRICT OFFICE FROM 2001-2015]
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CHAPTER TWO
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
SOURCES OF DATA COLLECTION
Data are piece of information collected for a certain purpose, in statistic, we can categorizes data into two types; the primary data and secondary data.
2.1 PRIMARY DATA
These are data collected at sources. This is the collection of such data in direct from the object of the interest i.e. data collected as a result of research methodology e.g. result of the question and sample survey.
2.2 SECONDARY DATA
These are data collected and probably worked upon another body or agency and is merely given to a research for his work i.e. the data collected from federal offices of statistic (F.O.S) and also the data collected from NACB, Nigerian Agriculture Co-operation Bank and other ministries of health, Central Bank of Nigeria [C.B.N].
2.2 COLLECTION OF DATA
The data used in this write up was extracted from the record of the account and sales departments of the N.E.P.A offices Ilorin District.
The data therefore is secondary data and comprises of residential, commercial and industrial consumer.
2.3 METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS
Data are subject to appropriate statistical method of analysis, there are many statistical tools of statistics, for the purpose of the study and keeping in line with objectives of the study to achieve our aims and objectives, the time series analysis was used.
2.4 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
The time series analysis is the statistical method of collecting data according to time of occurrence. The series play a significant role in the analysis of socio-economic data, most data on population, banking, export and import trade and so on are made sequentially.
2.5 IMPORTANT OF TIME SERIES
It helps in understanding past behavior of a variable and determining rate of growth extent and duration of periodic fluctuation.
The past behavior enable us to predict future.
The behavior of the variable enable us to iron out intra-year variable
Time series data usually help in forecasting or redacting an essential in any decision making process.
The time series is important [in particular] in field of economic statistic because most data usually treated deposit and so on in economic and business.
2.6 NATURE OF TIME SERIES
The first step in time series analysis if the time plot which is the graph on which original is plotted against.
It is important to know how time series is influence by time such knowledge enable us to know the present and past and it also enable us to predict the future tendency.
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ABSRACT - [ Total Page(s): 1 ]ABSTRACT HERE ... Continue reading---
TABLE OF CONTENTS - [ Total Page(s): 1 ]TABLE OF CONTENTCOVER PAGE APPROVAL PAGE DEDICATION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTTABLE OF CONTENT1.1 INTRODUCTION1.2 BACKGROUND AND ITS OPERATION 1.3 SIGNIFICANCE1.4 SCOPE OF STUDY1.5 AIMS AND OBJECTIVE 1.6 PROBLEMS AND LIMITATION OF STUDY 1.7 DEFINITION OF TERMS 1.8 ABBREVIATION USEDCHAPTER TWO 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW2.1 METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS 2.2 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS 2.3 IMPORTANCE OF TIME SERIES 2.4 NATURE OF TIME SERIES 2.5 ... Continue reading---
CHAPTER ONE - [ Total Page(s): 2 ]CHAPTER ONE1.0 INTRODUCTION The primary aim of National Electrical Power Authority (NEPA) is in cardinal point which is to generate, transmission, distribution and sales electricity within and outside country. National Electric Power Authority NEPA can be regarded as heart beat of the nation economy as the operation of machines use in industries and most household equipment depend on electricity. Today National Electric Power Authority (NEPA) meets total maximum energy demand from t ... Continue reading---
BIBLIOGRAPHY - [ Total Page(s): 1 ]BIBLIOGRAPHYFreud J.E. William F.J (1970) “Modern Business Statistics†Pitman Publishing bid great Britain Murray .R, Spiegal (1961) “Theory and problems of Statistics†in S.I (Schaum’s outline series)Notational Electric Power Authority 2003 Press Clip (NEPA transformation newsletter Vol.0033) J.B BABALOLAJ.B BABALOLA “Statistics with applications (in behavioural Science, Business and Engineering) Revised Editions MR. .I.O Azeez “ ... Continue reading---
CHAPTER THREE - [ Total Page(s): 12 ]SEMI-MOVING AVERAGE METHOD This consist of separating the data parts (preferably equal) averaging the data in each part, this obtaining two points on the graph of the time points and the trend value can be determined directly with out a graph.FREE HAND METHOD This is method which consist of fitting a trend line or curve simply by looking at the graph, can be used to estimate T trend. ESTIMATION OF SEASONAL VARIATION There are different methods available for computing seasona ... Continue reading---
CHAPTER FOUR - [ Total Page(s): 10 ]Since we must eliminate seasonal variation, the graph label Fig. 11. The seasonal variation in our time series and it is used to remove the effect of seasonal from time series which is called de-seasonalizing a time series. This graph made us proceed be deseasonilize our data as table 4.4 Moving average graph and original data of the montly consumption from 1998-2003 The graph of the original data shows in the figure by the solid line graph of the moving average is shown in broken ... Continue reading---
CHAPTER FIVE - [ Total Page(s): 1 ]CHAPTER FIVE5.1 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS The success of any analysis can only but judged by extent to which to which the objectives of the research have been achieved. While the series contain the upward trend figure 1 and 2 shows it to be very week one, the same conclusion can be drawn about the seasonal factor, these shows in table 4:3. However a different conclusion can be drawn about = periodic cyclical reregulation factor. By residual reasoning, it can be inferred that ... Continue reading---
